Thursday, June 05, 2008

06.05.08 Inflation Data; Tracking Cell Phone Users

ECONOMY:
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The U.S. computes its inflation data differently from the rest of the world in at least three ways, according to Bill Gross, PIMCO Funds bond guru. If you have had the misfortune to buy groceries or put gas in the tank over the past year or two, your inflation experiences vary quite a bit from the official government figures, which don't have to take those pesky food or fuel numbers into account. The first paragraph or two of the article qualifies as a pretty good rant, but is unfortunately true. Good read. Here's one sentence from the opening rant: "We have for so long now been willing to be entertained rather than informed, that we more or less accept majority opinion, perpetually shaped by ratings obsessed media, at face value."
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BEAST SYSTEM:
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Researchers secretly tracked the locations of 100,000 people outside the United States through their cell phone use and concluded that most people rarely stray more than a few miles from home. As important as that tidbit of information might be - who needs a study to know that? The implications of the ability to track and monitor movements of the citizenry are unsettling.
...The surveillance society is alive and well - so is the threat to individual freedom and privacy as we enter these end times. The beast is becoming more visible as we venture further into this brave new world.
...Folks who make their living pounding computer keyboards at work have long been aware that their every keystroke can be monitored. Employers can track how many keystrokes were made in any one minute or hour. At one job I had, management's reports included production numbers broken down into thirty minute segments. I once heard a manager mention to another employee that he noticed she had not made a keystroke in ten minutes at one point in the previous hour and wanted to make sure she was not having some sort of problem. She explained that she had to go to the bathroom.
...Speaking of which, there are even some companies that require their employees to wear RFID identification which can monitor all their movements on the property, including keeping track of the number of bathroom visits and the elapsed time of those visits.
...When all the states buckle under and line up with increasingly stringent standards on new drivers licenses, all in the name of protecting us from terrorism, it will be at least theoretically possible for monitoring stations to pick up on RFID information contained in your driver's license as you pass by, and know in an instant, who you are and any other information that might be contained in your card. The technology already exists, as the above mentioned study illustrates.
...Meanwhile, though, thousands of people a day still cross our southwestern borders unmolested and untracked, and over 90% of the cargo that enters our ports is not checked. But, don't worry about that guy behind the curtain.

Saturday, May 31, 2008

06.01.08 MORE PROGRESS, LESS LIBERTY

LEADING TO 'THE MARK'
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"Your fingerprint's hardly personal data, because you leave it on glasses and silverware and articles all over the world." Michael Chertoff, head of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. With that startling remark, Mr. Chertoff trivializes privacy concerns.
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That brings to mind another article from last year on basically the same subject. Mr. Chertoff spoke at the International Data Protection and Privacy commissioner's meeting last year in Montreal, Quebec. But the group found his remarks to be far from comforting. Mr. Chertoff called for greater surveillance by governments of their private citizens and the collection of ever increasing amounts of data in the name of security. According to the article, Mr. Chertoff's vision is of a broad surveillance society with massive databases of biometric data collected from hundreds of millions of people.
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For those of us who have had to endure the seemingly endless security lines at airports, and all the other things that make flying such a joy these days, you might enjoy an excellent article titled 'The View From Gate 14' by Peggy Noonan that neatly encapsulates the frustrations. Some people have suggested that part of the whole is process is getting people conditioned to being herded around in public settings.
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And along the same lines, here's one on 'Homeland Security Newspeak' in the online Wall Street Journal. According to the article, the U.S. DHS thinks it is a bad idea to use the word 'liberty' when describing our foreign policy goals. Get this quote from the article: "The struggle is for progress, over which no nation has a monopoly. The experts we consulted debated the word 'liberty', but rejected it because many around the world would discount the term as a buzzword for American hegemony. But all people want to support 'progress'..." This from the same minds that decided to change the Global War on Terror terminology to the Global Struggle for Security and Progress.
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To some, our government's efforts would be more believable if they showed the same concern about securing our borders with Mexico as they do in collecting biometric data from everyone else. When literally thousands of people can cross a border every day without being challenged, it makes the rest of it seem as if there might be another agenda at work. We are supposed to believe that our government cannot keep people from crossing that border; they cannot stop the flow of illegal drugs into this country; but they can keep the terrorists out, apparently mostly by collecting biometric data, building databases, and herding people through security lines at airports.
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Earlier this year, Heathrow Airport installed a new security system for passengers who visit the international lounge at the airport before boarding their flights, or passengers who arrive on an international flight and transfer to a domestic one. Those passengers now have to undergo iris scans and fingerprinting.
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All of the above is logical and explainable. And it is all leading toward the global system that will be part of the end-time Beast system. The Beast system will feature a world wide computer network that will require all participants to provide biometric identification in order to access the system. All financial transactions will be conducted in the network. I have covered this more extensively in my blog that focuses on end times events.
...In summary, most people seem to think that the mark of the beast referred to in Revelation will be a chip implanted under the skin. Although the technology exists to do that, and it might have limited application in the future, that is not going to be the 'mark'. Just think about it. The logistics of trying to implant every man, woman and child on the planet, not to mention all the thousands who are being born around the world every second, would be mind boggling even if it were possible - and it is not. How much easier and better to have a central system that requires anyone who wants to conduct any kind of financial transaction - and that would be pretty much everybody except in the poorest, most remote locations on the globe - to log on to the Beast system.
...The system has been moving into place step by step. Each step is logical and convenient. Electronic payment transfers, direct deposit, debit and credit cards are all logical improvements over previous methods of conducting financial transactions, and there is nothing evil about them - many people routinely use them, including me. But they also have the effect of conditioning people. Most people will never be aware that they are signing onto the Beast system when it comes. Many of the same people who are afraid of the number 666 and being 'forced' to take the chip, will happily sign up for the new system.
...People will have to accept the terms of an agreement to access the system. That is commonplace now. Every time one installs a new software program or update, that is standard operating procedure. But there will be something in that agreement that will keep true Christians from being able to sign up. The problem with that is that even most Christians seem to be blissfully unaware of the times in which they live. And the false teachings about the Rapture doctrine, which have become prevalent in this generation, lull many into a false sense of security.
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FINANCE
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There are anecdotal reports from different parts of the country about how the effects of higher oil and food prices are finally starting to show. It had to at some point. Many people have always lived paycheck to paycheck, even people who make really good money. When people who were scraping by in the good old days of $1.50 gas now are faced with $4.00 gas and double digit food price hikes and higher utility bills, something has to give.
...Remember how we used to hear about the 'consumer driven economy'? When was the last time you heard that term? It seems to have disappeared.
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Much of the final beast system is financially related. The Bible also says that the debtor is servant to the lender, and the rich rule over the poor. Americans have been encouraged to take on debt at record levels. We have gone in the space of a generation from being the world's largest debtor nation to being the largest creditor nation.
...When the end-time Beast system finally materializes, and that may be closer than you think, people who are over their heads in debt are going to be between a rock and a hard place, and that includes Christians. Christians who have been taught the escapist Rapture doctrine will not be prepared, spiritually or physically, for what will happen. It is one thing to believe that you may undergo persecution. It will be entirely another matter to be unable to conduct business, hold a job, or be able to buy groceries for your family. That may seem far fetched and extreme, but the last days are going to be extreme - and Christians will go through them along with everyone else.
...Getting out of debt is not only prudent in the face of what is coming, it is also a good investment if nothing happens. If your credit card has an interest rate of 18%, paying it off is effectively even more than an 18% return, since with all the taxes you pay, you have to earn well over a dollar to have a dollar to spend. For instance, if you are in the 15% tax bracket and live in a state with income tax, and a municipality with local taxes, and you pay into the Social Security system, you likely have to gross over $1.25 to have $1.00 to spend.
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Read your Bible for yourself. People seem increasingly unconcerned about their eternal destination. We live in an age where there are so many religions and people doing their own thing. "Whatever works for you," seems to be the common theme. Many roads leading to heaven, even according to our President. That's one of the problems the world has with Christianity, Judaism, and Islam. They are not inclusive religions. Each says they are right and everything else is wrong. That doesn't fit into our brave new world, and is a major reason that true adherents of each of these religions will be increasingly persecuted as we move forward.
...As a Christian, I believe that there is only one road to heaven, not many. The Bible says that there is one way, one mediator between man and God, and that is Jesus. When I hear people say they don't believe that, then they rattle off some bizarre belief system that makes them feel good, I am reminded about an anecdote about gravity. No one forces you to believe in gravity. You are free to reject the theory of gravity. But if you jump off a building, you will get a lesson in gravity.
...No one is forcing anyone to believe in Jesus as their Savior. People are free to believe whatever they want, however strange their beliefs may be. But there is only one way to get to heaven. Whatever decision you make regarding Jesus as Lord and Savior is going to determine where you spend eternity. That is hardly a trivial matter, but most people today seem to think that it is.

Saturday, May 10, 2008

05.13.08 Misc

...Consumer debt rose at a rate of over $15 billion in March, according to the Fed. Economists overall had been expecting an increase of about $6 billion. Consumers are having to borrow more to maintain their lifestyles and pay the bills. Folks have been using credit cards increasingly as banks have tightened their lending standards. Many people were living paycheck to paycheck back in the good old days when gas was $2 a gallon.
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UN Alert: One-fourth Of World's Wheat At Risk From New Fungus. Worldtribune.com 05.13.08.
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One of the smartest guys in hell. The preaching of the cross is foolishness to the wise guys of this world, according to the Bible. This is just another example.
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And another televangelist apologizes for his beliefs "...out of a desire to advance a greater unity among Catholics and evangelicals in promoting the common good...". And what is that 'common good'? Apparently, trying to get the Republican candidate elected to the White House, a candidate who openly ridiculed people like Mr. Hagee the last time around on the election trail. But now Mr. McCain is the man and he needs to exploit the Christian base.
...The media have persistently tried to make Mr. Hagee into Mr. McCain's Rev. Wright. Mr. Hagee is trying to short circuit those efforts.

Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Further Down The End Times Trail

LEADING TO 'THE MARK':
The U.S. government ordered commercial airlines and cruise lines to prepare to collect digital fingerprints of all foreigners before they depart the country. The travel industry is balking as the new government requirements will cost billions. Isn't it interesting how concerned our government is about restrictions on airline travelers, but could seemingly care less about how many thousands of people can walk undetected across our southwestern borders daily?
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AND GETTING EVER CLOSER TO THE ONE WORLD BEAST SYSTEM. Our leaders seem to see us as just one member in the larger global village, sort of a large state in the larger global government instead of a sovereign nation, in effect. To put it in perspective, we are more like California as part of the U.S. (or maybe Texas would be more appropriate?) - a major player, but still just a player in a larger system. In their view, it seems that borders and nationalism made sense in the past, but in this brave new world of modern communications and transportation, they are obsolete. They believe that more efficient use of resources (and that includes you and me) benefits the planet as a whole. It's just that they can't admit it to the great unwashed. To do so would risk awaking us from our stupor. Better to just do everything off the radar and out of the light of day, while feeding us the pablum that passes for news these days. Guess I'm getting old and drank too much coffee today, but that doesn't mean it's not true. Anyway, here's another article where the leaders of Canada and Mexico, our partners in the SPP (Security and Partnership of North America), and the coming North American Union, come to the defense of The Decider regarding NAFTA. "This is not the time to even think about amending it or canceling it," said President Calderon of Mejico, in regard to NAFTA.
...Here's the link to the SPP website. And a link to the Wikipedia entry on the SPP, which also has lots of other links both pro and con.
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FOOD:
WORLD FACING HUGE NEW CHALLENGE ON FOOD FRONT, Business As Usual Not A Viable Option, BaltimoreChronicle.com. On the world scene, food riots have become commonplace. Following are some of the many data points in the article, which is one of the most comprehensive articles I have seen on this important subject.
...In Sudan, the U.N. World Food Programme, which has the responsibility of feeding over 2 million people in Darfur refugee camps, has had 56 trucks hijacked in the first three months of this year. 24 of the drivers are still missing.
...In Pakistan, thousands of Pakistani troops are assigned to guard grain elevators and to escort grain shipments.
...The WFP in March asked for an additional $500 million, as the 37 countries that depend on the WFP's emergency food supplies are facing additional risks.
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FUELS VS. FOOD, U.S. Energy Policy Hurting World's Poor, New York Post. Also, the cost of producing ethanol is more than the cost of producing fuel from petroleum. And corn produced ethanol is not going to be the answer to weaning us from our Middle Eastern suppliers, at least not in the ham handed way that our legislators have ordered. Our leaders have mandated that corn is the answer. Not only does that take more acreage away from food production, but corn is also not as cost efficient as other means of producing ethanol. For example, the sugar cane that Brazil uses is three times as cost efficient as corn.
...And there are new biotech breakthroughs that have the potential to produce ethanol from all kinds of products, including waste, corn husks, prairie switchgrass, and wood chips, for example. But maybe that wouldn't be as profitable to the the powers that be and their cronies? Mandating that our ethanol comes from corn also mandates who makes the profits. Sort of like other government agencies not endorsing natural herbal remedies that you can grow in your backyard or find in the wild - after all, who would profit from that?
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For the love of money is the root of all evil. I Timothy 6:10.
The Bible tells us that the final world beast system will be different and more terrible than all which preceded it. I think it is becoming increasingly clear that one reason for that is that all previous world empires had national identities and allegiances. The final system will be different. It will be a mixture of nations that, instead of owing their allegiance to a national identity, will give themselves over to a world system, a system that owes its allegiance to money. That is why the Bible speaks of that final system being part iron and part clay.
...That system will ultimately control all financial transactions. The day is getting closer where anyone on the planet who desires to conduct any commerce will have to access a central computer system and provide biometric identification in order to access the system. In its final form, the system will likely require all users to agree to some sort of oath, an oath that will offend last day saints to the extent that they will be unable to agree to it, and will thus be excluded from the world's financial system.
...Christians will go through the final tribulation period. Dreams of rapture are just that: dreams. They are of necessity a Western phenomenon. Try telling poor families in Africa who see their loved ones dying of Aids and starvation, and being raped and pillaged by whatever latest version of marauder comes through the countryside, not to worry. They'll be raptured out before things get really bad.
...The rapture doctrine was not taught in the early church. It originated in 19th century England. Premillennialism has been taught by some folks all throughout church history, but not the dispensational brand of it which includes the rapture doctrine. The rapture doctrine sells a lot of books, but it is wrong and belief in it is going to hurt a lot of people. Read your Bible for yourself.
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04.23.08 Food Crisis Goes Mainstream

Food shortages are going to be an increasingly important story going forward. The Washington Post has an excellent article on the food crisis, labelling it a 'silent tsunami'. Britain's Prime Minister Gordon Brown said that 25,000 people a day die from hunger related conditions. He said that translates to one child dying every five seconds from hunger related causes. Main reasons cited for the increased strain on world food supplies are:
....Rising fuel prices.
....Droughts in some food producing countries.
....Increased demand, particularly in Asia. China and India, in particular, continue to shape the world supply/demand area in many areas.
....And last, but certainly not least, the decision by our powers that be to divert part of our grain growing into ethanol production instead of food. Not only is that inefficient economically - there are cheaper and better alternatives, though likely not as profitable to the parties involved - but it now adds to the burden on already strained food supplies.
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Here in the U.S., Wal-Mart just announced that it is limiting sales of certain types of rice due to 'recent supply and demand trends'. Costco also announced that they have seen signs of customers stocking up on rice, flour and cooking oil. Some of their stores had already started limiting the amount of these items that could be purchased in one shopping trip. There were also reports of some kinds of rice being completely gone from the shelves.
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JAPAN'S HUNGER BECOMES A DIRE WARNING FOR OTHER NATIONS, screams this headline from the TheAge.com, an Australian site. Food shortages are also hitting now in prosperous Japan. According to this Australian article, 80% of the Japanese people are frightened about what the future holds regarding food supplies. They are concerned about a future that could include a permanent reduction in the amount and quality of the food available. Japan imports 90% of its wheat supplies. The government has already had to provide emergency funds to continue bringing wheat into the country. The funds they had budgeted for wheat imports had run out with more than two months remaining in the fiscal year. It was the first time since the 2nd world war that the Japanese government had to take such action.
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According to a piece in the Wall Street Journal, Manu Daftary, who heads up the Quaker Strategic Growth mutual fund, says that folks should be 'loading up the pantry'. "I think prices are going higher. People are too complacent. They think it isn't going to happen here. But I don't know how the food companies can absorb higher costs."
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RICE SHORTAGE IN THE PHILIPPINES could possible endanger that government's stability. This article from Bloomberg paints a vivid illustration of the different sides involved in grain shortages. On the one hand, the price of rice is up 41% in the past year and rice futures last week had their biggest gains in seven years. On the other hand are the villages where families cluster together in shacks and are dependent on rice as the staple of their diets and are being priced out of the food markets.
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This article in the Asia Times points the bony finger of blame directly at the U.S. "The global food crisis is a monetary phenomenon, an unintended consequence of America's attempt to inflate its way out of a market failure. There are long-term reasons for food prices to rise, but the unprecedented spike in grain prices during the past year stems from the weakness of the American dollar. Washington's economic misery now threatens to become a geopolitical catastrophe."
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Wednesday, April 09, 2008

04.09.08

FOOD/WATER:

Bread lines in Egypt. Seven people have died in brawls in bread lines since the beginning of the year, according to the government owned Egyptian Gazette newspaper.
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Rice shortages are appearing across Asia. In Thailand, farmers are staying awake in shifts all night to guard their fields. Riots in several countries.
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Water shortages affect food, transit, security. According to the article, it takes a thousand tons of water to produce one ton of grain.
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LEADING TO 'THE MARK?'
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Heathrow Airport has quietly introduced compulsory fingerprinting and photographic profiling of passengers on domestic routes. The British Airports Authority says the profiling is needed because the new wing at Heathrow will have a single departure lounge for both domestic and international travellers, and the authority wants to prevent travellers from bypassing immigration checks by exchanging flight tickets once they through the check-in process. Another viewpoint on the issue was expressed by Dr. Louis Hosein of the London School of Economics, who believes that the government is trying to make routine fingerprinting appear acceptable in advance preparation for national ID cards.
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In response to our own nation's coming Real ID, here's a comment from Texas Congressman Ron Paul: "Proponents of the REAL ID Act continue to make the preposterous claim that the bill does not establish a national ID card. This is dangerous and insulting nonsense."

Monday, April 07, 2008

Bookmark: The New Survivalism?

Bookmarking this article in the NY Times for future reference.
Duck and Cover: It's the New Survivalism, NY Times.
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According to the World Bank, 33 nations face social unrest after food and energy costs rose for six straight years. Bloomberg News.
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Food Crisis Being Felt Around the World. National Post. Riots in several countries, and countries worried about how they will feed their poor.
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Global Food Shortages Could Continue For Decades. Marketoracle.co.uk. This article also contains a chart issued by the USDA showing declining acreage devoted to food grains, while at the same time grain inventories are declining and world population is increasing.
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2008: The Year Of Global Food Crisis. Sundayherald.com (Scotland) special report. The increasing scarcity of food is the biggest crisis looming for the world, according to the U.N.'s World Food Program.
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Go to google.com and type in 'food shortages 2008'. This is not a little story, even though it receives scant coverage in this country.
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Laying in several months of food items that your family will actually eat is not only prudent, but in these days of price inflation for food items, is also a good investment. Gardening is not only good exercise and gets you outdoors, but the food you grow yourself is better than what you get in the stores.

Monday, February 25, 2008

02.25.08 U.S. Comptroller General of GAO Resigns

David Walker, Comptroller General of our government's General Accountability Office (GAO) has resigned with five years left on his term to head up a new organization intended to force discussion of the many issues confronting our nation. The Peter G. Peterson Foundation, founded by Mr. Peterson, himself the head of the Blackstone Group and former Commerce Secretary in the Nixon administration, should hopefully have enough funding and clout to make a difference.
"I have been around a long time and I have never seen so many simultaneous challenges that I would describe as undeniable, unsustainable and virtually untouchable politically," Mr. Peterson said.
...All this and much more in a noteworthy article by Bill Donoghue in today's MarketWatch.
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FOOD
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We are going to see much more about food inflation, at best, and possibly shortages in the days to come. Food and energy prices are typically not included in the government's official inflation figures, but if you buy groceries or fill up the car's tank, you are well aware that prices are relentlessly moving higher.
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FOOD INDUSTRY SAYS PRICES HEADED UP AGAIN IN '08. (Reuters).
WORLD GRAIN DEMAND STRAINING U.S. SUPPLY. ..."We'll have discussions about food security in 2008. We'll have discussions about whether we should allow the foreign sector to buy our food. Is food a strategic item that we need to keep in our country?", said Chris Hurt, a Purdue University agricultural economist.
FAMINES MAY OCCUR WITHOUT RECORD CROPS THIS YEAR. (Bloomberg). Global grain stockpiles fell to about 53 days last year, the lowest since records started being kept on such things in 1960. William Doyle, CEO of Potash Corp, a leading fertilizer supplier, said in an interview with Bloomberg that grain farmers will need to harvest record crops every year to meet increasing global food demand and avoid famine.
FORGET OIL, THE NEW GLOBAL CRISIS IS FOOD. (NationalPost.com). A new crisis is emerging, a global food catastrophe that will reach further and be more crippling than anything the world has ever seen, according to Donald Coxe, global portfolio strategist at BMO Financial Group.
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...It would be prudent to start laying in some extra supplies on weekly grocery trips. Many people are unaware that most supermarkets in our country also have less than a week's worth of food on hand at any one time. Should something happen to disrupt the transportation distribution system, there would be food shortages almost immediately.
...Laying in extra supplies is also a good investment. Prices will only be higher in the future. Buying an extra few cans of goods that your family will actually eat every week, and keeping them rotated on your pantry shelves, is a money saving idea.
...Gardening will also become increasingly important in the future, as it has in the past at various times. Gardens can take on all shapes and sizes. I even read recently about an inner city program where folks use children's wading pools as container gardens.
...On our homestead, I'm planning on starting my first hydroponic experiment this year. I have also been looking into permaculture, a system that tries to use more natural plant groupings. More on that later.
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Saturday, January 05, 2008

01.05.08 Money Matters

ECONOMICS AND FINANCE:
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DOW'S WORST 3 DAY START SINCE 1932, (CNBC).
S&P 500 worst start since 2000.
Nasdaq has lost 5.6% in 3 days.
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PRESIDENT BUSH MEETS WITH 'WORKING GROUP ON FINANCIAL MARKETS', (Reuters). Some folks call this group the Plunge Protection Team. Some other folks have denied all along that this group even exists, and probably still will in the future. Here's another link with an article on the group.
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FED UPS AUCTION AMOUNTS TO AID BANKS, (Washington, AP). They are increasing the amount of money available to banks to 'ease the nation's severe credit squeeze.' This is in addition the billions already injected into the system. Europe's central banks also put in about $500 billion recently.
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UNEMPLOYMENT UP, STOKING RECESSION FEARS, (Washington, AP). The fewest new jobs in about 4 years were added. Also we need to take into account how the government actually calculates the data. Birth/death rate models are used to estimate jobs created, for example, along with statistical seasonal adjustments. And the unemployment figures do not account for people who have been out of work so long that they are out of benefits and just drop off the map as far as the government is concerned.
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TREASURY DEPARTMENT PLANS SOCIAL SECURITY DEBIT CARD, (Reuters). The report said the card will be targeted towards Social Security and Supplemental Security Income recipients who don't have a bank account, and is also aimed at providing cheaper and more secure payments by shifting away from paper checks.
..."We've been working for a while to try to understand the needs of the unbanked. Combine that with problems we've seen with financial crimes and identity theft problems with forged checks and stolen checks and so on - the debit card seemed like the right answer," said Judith Tillman, commissioner of the Treasury's Financial Management Service.
...Sounds good, but I also wonder if this is just another step toward the Mark of the Beast. More on that on my other blog End Time Events. Many people believe that the mark will be some kind of implanted chip or even a tattoo forced onto people to control them. But reading Revelation 13, it says that the mark is for financial transactions. No one could buy or sell without the mark. Why does the mark have to be an implanted chip? People already are 'marked' with unique biometric identifiers in their fingerprints and in their eyes.
...Folks familiar with the end time scenarios might choose to die rather than accept the dreaded 'mark'. But what if it came in a form that they didn't expect. What if someday when we have moved completely to a cashless society, everyone is required to log onto a central computer system in order to conduct any financial transactions, and must provide biometric identification to access that system? Would they think anything about it?
...I'm certainly not saying this debit card is the mark. I do a lot of electronic payments, have direct deposit and know many people who have to provide biometric identification to access secure locations now.
...But it is all leading to that day when the beast system will require everyone who wishes to participate in the financial system to agree with the fine print in the agreements and provide biometric identification to do so. I guess the devil will really be in the details at that point. I wonder how many people will just blithely go along, having been conditioned little by little for so many years. How many will not recognize what is happening because they have been expecting some kind of evil dictator who will forcibly try to 'mark' everyone? How many will give in because all of a sudden they can't make their house payments and buy groceries otherwise?
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Friday, January 04, 2008

01.04.08 Food Shortages, Higher Prices Ahead?

FOOD:
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FORGET OIL, THE NEW GLOBAL CRISIS IS FOOD, Alia McMullen, National Post. "A new crisis is emerging, a global food catastrophe that will reach further and be more crippling than anything the world has ever seen," said Donald Coxe, global portfolio strategist at BMO Financial Group.
...The article says raw food prices have gone up 22% over the past year. Wheat is up 92% and corn 44% in the past year. As more farmers convert their acreage to corn to be used as biofuel at the expense of food grains with our government's encouragement and our money, that trend doesn't look to reverse anytime soon.
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HIGHER FOOD PRICES START TO PINCH CONSUMERS, (Wall Street Journal online). People are starting to feel the effect of the biggest jump in food prices in 17 years.
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Laying in some extra food and water not only will provide a much needed cushion in emergencies, but also can be considered a sound and safe investment, that is unless you think food prices are going to go down in the next year or two.
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Thursday, January 03, 2008

01.03.08 News & Notes

ECONOMICS:
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"We were taught in Economics 101 that countries could not for long sustain large, ever-growing trade deficits. Our country has been behaving like an extraordinarily rich family that possesses an immense farm. In order to consume 4% more than they produce - that's the trade deficit - we have, day by day, been both selling pieces of the farm and increasing the mortgage on what we still own." Warren Buffett, as quoted in the article Winning Attitude: Ten Resolutions That Will Help You Survive The Coming Bear Market, by Paul B. Farrell, in his column in today's MarketWatch. Not all Mr. Farrell's resolutions are specifically market related. I enjoy his writings whether or not I agree with him or not, and I do not always agree with him. For instance, he does not believe that anyone can beat the markets consistently. Yet our NoTouch Portfolio and OOPs portfolios detailed on our financial blog have done so consistently over the years.
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Debt reduction ranks 2nd among the most popular resolutions for 2008, according to another worthwhile article on today's MarketWatch by Marshall Loeb. Sound advice in the column towards a very worthwhile goal. The Bible says that the debtor is servant to the lender. A system that makes it easy to borrow and penalizes you for saving by confiscating those savings with inflation and taxes is like children getting to pick their own menus every day. Candy and sweets may be tasty, but that doesn't mean that they are good for you on a regular basis, especially as your main diet.
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The dollar making new lows, oil and natural resource prices rising, and foreign investors now buying up our businesses rather than take as many of our increasingly devalued dollars, are all signals that we are looking at trouble. Watching CNBC yesterday in another rough day on Wall Street, I heard one of their regular anchors railing against people who recommend gold and oil buys as only saying those things because "that is what they are selling."
...Laughable. Like the regular Wall Street shills aren't doing the same every day?
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INFLATION CALCULATOR:
...Here is a neat tool provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. You can measure the rate of inflation on goods and services you have purchased (using their data, of course, for what that is worth.) You just plug numbers into the fields on their form. For example, if you say I bought $1.00 of goods in 1997, what would they have cost in 2007? Their answer is $1.29.
...Of course, government inflation numbers are severely distorted to the conservative side. But if you know what you paid for something, say a food item several years ago, you can put in the current rates and see how much the price has increased on an annualized basis since?
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H5N1 Avian Flu. This is starting to come back on the radar. The link is to the government site covering the bird flu. Note their map showing cases with confirmed cases of the H5N1 flu. There's a lot of information on the site regarding how families should prepare for a potential emergency. This information would also be useful for any other potential emergency.
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Wednesday, January 02, 2008

01.02.08 RISE OF THE KINGS OF THE EAST, CONTINUED WAR ON U.S. MIDDLE CLASS

2008: THE YEAR A NEW SUPERPOWER IS BORN, (Independent.co.uk). "China is set to make 2008 the year it asserts its status as a global colossus by flexing frightening economic muscle on international markets, enjoying unprecedented levels of domestic consumption and showcasing itself to a watching world with a glittering 20b (British pound) Olympic games."
...We have long been predicting that the Chinese would use the 2008 Olympic games much as Hitler used the 1936 Olympic games to demonstrate his nation's might and grandeur. It is one of the reasons that I have felt all along, as stated often in my financial blog, that natural resource stocks should continue to do well for the foreseeable future as China and India, the world's two most populous nations, move toward center stage.
...The other thing that caught my eye in this article was that Chinese sovereign funds would start spending some of its $1.3 trillion foreign currency reserves in Britain. Up until now those funds had only been allowed to invest in Hong Kong.
...China's emergence is yet another piece of the last generation puzzle as the players continue to move into place on the world stage. When the Bible speaks of a 200,000,000 man army, what other nation could field such a force?
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AN OTTOMAN WARNING FOR AMERICA, (FT.com). Another article showing the power shift to the east. The author compares the U.S. present day situation to that of the 1870s. The author, Niall Ferguson, a professor at Harvard Business School and a senior fellow the Hoover Institution at Stanford, says, "...we are indeed living through a global shift in the balance of power very similar to that which occurred in the 1870s. This is the story of how an over-extended empire sought to cope with an external debt crisis by selling off revenue streams to foreign investors. The empire that suffered those setbacks in the 1870s was the Ottoman empire. Today it is the U.S."
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BROKE BRITAIN: MILLIONS FACE STRUGGLE TO STAY AFLOAT AS FINANCIAL CRISIS HITS HOME, (Independent, UK). "Debt experts are predicting a record number of personal insolvencies this year as excessive Christmas shopping, rising mortgage payments and soaring food and fuel costs force thousands of people over the financial edge and into bankruptcy."
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CRUNCH TIME FOR AMERICAN CONSUMERS, Peter Schiff, SaveHaven.com. "The subprime mortgage crisis is merely the tip of a very large iceberg. Beneath the surface lies not only a sea of tenuous loans to prime borrowers, but also an assortment of other liabilities backed by auto loans and credit card debt."
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WELLNESS PROGRAM DISCIPLES GOD'S PEOPLE TO LOSE WEIGHT AND LEAD OTHERS TO BETTER HEALTH, (ChristianNewsWire). "The spirit of sloth and gluttony has taken over [the Christian] community, but there is something we can do to stop it. Once our leaders recognize the importance of having proper nutrition and daily fitness as an integral part of their own lives, they will continuously convey the importance of having a healthy lifestyle to their congregations," said Bonnie Mechelle, a wellness coach.
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HONEY MAKING A MEDICAL COMEBACK, (MSNBC). Potent type used as antibiotic amid fears of drug-resistant superbugs.
...I believe that if we ate the foods the good Lord gave us to eat in the way that He provided them (without hormones, pesticides, genetic modification, etc.), and used natural remedies, we would be healthier. It might hurt the revenues of those folks whose profits soar when people are sick and hurting, but so what?
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KATRINA DISASTER RELIEF REMAINS A DISGRACE, (Dan K. Thomasson, syndicated columnist, seattlepi.com).
...Even our government recommends that people have a week or two supplies on hand for emergencies. Most people do not. Having some supplies on hand beats standing in a line for food and water. And in these last times, there will be more emergencies.
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NAFTA CEMENTING A NORTH AMERICAN UNION, (Devvy Kidd, NewsWithViews.com). A somewhat strident viewpoint, but this is an issue that needs to be kept in the open. The powers that be are selling us out on this issue, all the while denying that there is anything to it. There is no shortage of valid links regarding this subject, including some excellent ones provided by Ms. Kidd in this article. There are some previous links given at various times in the past on my blog as well. Vicente Fox, the former el presidente of Mejico, did not deny that it is coming. He was quite open about it on his appearance on Larry King (see previous blog entries for links).
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